"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun'."
— Groucho Marx
Those opinions are a little too extreme for my taste. I think the war in Iraq and Afghanistan proves that you can't pull a hammer and trash everything you consider dangerous. These policies of pre-emptive military actions will have implications for decades to come. Just like when the Mujahedin evolved into Al-Qaeda after the Russians left, so will al-thaweed(now AQ in Iraq) expand its territory after the occupying forces leave.
Terrorism can't be beaten militarily neither can nuclear proliferation. Iran knows of the pitfalls by pursuing a nuclear weapon and they know they can potentially provoke a first strike.
The thing is that they probable have an answer ready for when such an event might occur. Iran gets attacked, they will retaliate. Which might be with a nuclear weapon.
Anybody really want to maintain their 'tough talk' and risk millions of people getting incinerated or dying from radiation poisoning?
You need to treat the infection without killing the patient. The EU-3 diplomacy hasn't been exhausted yet. Maybe in time Iran will trade its uranium enrichment program for light water reactors. When Israel demonstratively tests ballistic missiles, the Iranians will brag about their nuclear program. What is necessary is a period of cooling down.
Zereul, We have tried all of that in the past. It was my thinking as well, but Khomeini is serious. Hearing these things leads me to believe that the Arab nations are waiting to attack us--because they believe we support Israel-- and Israel. Talks and cooling down won't happen. Not in this lifetime.
"Hearing these things leads me to believe that the Arab nations are waiting to attack us--because they believe we support Israel-- and Israel."
Vague assumptions is always a bad advisor. And with the war in Iraq and Afghanistan the Iranian probably feel the same way. Khatami was milder than Ahmadinejad. At the time Iran even opened its doors for inspections in their nuclear facilities. But then the war in Iraq broke and pressure on Iran increased. Iran closed its doors for inspections and the mullahs replace Khatami with another puppet that barks at Israel and the U.S.
Do you see the pattern? Countries adjust their security policies to what they estimates is the threat level of their rival country.
Its a snowball effect that can easily lead into conflict. Iran knows that agression from their part will be their downfall. They are only occupied with self-preservation.
A cooling down period will normalize relations and improve the efficacy of diplomatic efforts.
5 comments:
Those opinions are a little too extreme for my taste. I think the war in Iraq and Afghanistan proves that you can't pull a hammer and trash everything you consider dangerous. These policies of pre-emptive military actions will have implications for decades to come. Just like when the Mujahedin evolved into Al-Qaeda after the Russians left, so will al-thaweed(now AQ in Iraq) expand its territory after the occupying forces leave.
Terrorism can't be beaten militarily neither can nuclear proliferation. Iran knows of the pitfalls by pursuing a nuclear weapon and they know they can potentially provoke a first strike.
The thing is that they probable have an answer ready for when such an event might occur. Iran gets attacked, they will retaliate. Which might be with a nuclear weapon.
Anybody really want to maintain their 'tough talk' and risk millions of people getting incinerated or dying from radiation poisoning?
You need to treat the infection without killing the patient. The EU-3 diplomacy hasn't been exhausted yet. Maybe in time Iran will trade its uranium enrichment program for light water reactors. When Israel demonstratively tests ballistic missiles, the Iranians will brag about their nuclear program. What is necessary is a period of cooling down.
Zereul,
We have tried all of that in the past. It was my thinking as well, but Khomeini is serious. Hearing these things leads me to believe that the Arab nations are waiting to attack us--because they believe we support Israel-- and Israel. Talks and cooling down won't happen. Not in this lifetime.
Jack thanks for the link..
T
Hi Z,
I agree that terror cannot be defeated solely by military means, nor solely by diplomacy.
Tanisha,
Thanks for stopping by. Feel free to keep hanging out.
"Hearing these things leads me to believe that the Arab nations are waiting to attack us--because they believe we support Israel-- and Israel."
Vague assumptions is always a bad advisor. And with the war in Iraq and Afghanistan the Iranian probably feel the same way. Khatami was milder than Ahmadinejad. At the time Iran even opened its doors for inspections in their nuclear facilities. But then the war in Iraq broke and pressure on Iran increased. Iran closed its doors for inspections and the mullahs replace Khatami with another puppet that barks at Israel and the U.S.
Do you see the pattern? Countries adjust their security policies to what they estimates is the threat level of their rival country.
Its a snowball effect that can easily lead into conflict. Iran knows that agression from their part will be their downfall. They are only occupied with self-preservation.
A cooling down period will normalize relations and improve the efficacy of diplomatic efforts.
A cooling down period will normalize relations and improve the efficacy of diplomatic efforts.
Maybe, but there are examples of this not happening, such as Chamberlain and Hitler.
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